Rob's End of year 2022 crypto market report (part 1)
Updated: Feb 20
BTC DXY THETA MATIC EGLD BTC.d NEAR ANKR ICP FIL analysis
We are trading and still WeDontSubscribeToHype.com :)
The total crypto market cap stands at 851 B on the 27th of December 2022, after bouncing back from the top levels of the previous bull run that ended in December 2017.
In my last report I was saying that BTC is moving in a parallel channel that suggests a first target at the 18.200$ levels (followed by a run up to 19.300$) :
Seems I was half right, we got to the first target and rejection followed :
For now the median part of the channel is holding. I am going to trade this setup as follows :
Long: 4h close over the 17.200$ area targets the 19.300$ area.
Short : 4h close under 16.700$ targets the 15.700$ area.
Will update with my personal trades on the live trading channel.
Updated chart :
The "place of interest" now stands at the 100-102 region. Although the dollar went from 2.2 Tril in February 2021 to 5.9 Tril in march 2021 (and now voted another 1.7 tril to be added shortly) we are not seeing the crypto markets bounce as expected. They should. Fast.
The RSI shows that there is still more downside to the oversold levels, after that a bounce should follow.
I will update on the live trading channel.
3. THETA coin
Fundamental info : THETA is one of the few projects that complies with the SEC rules and was previously vetted as secure. We are seeing a retest of the lows with bullish divs on both RSI and MACD.
Didn't yet get the breakout I was aiming for in our last report, the setups I'm following are :
Long : 4h close and retest over 0.85$ targets the 1.20$ area
Short : 4h close and retest under 0,72$ targets the 0,67$ area (ATL this cycle)
Bonus weekly chart :
It looks extremely bullish with a semi-confirmed RSI bull div on the weekly and a price target over 7$. Currently sitting on the retest of the previous breakout from September 2020 levels. I believe that a trip to the overbought levels will follow at some point in the next 3-6 months !!!
We lost the support I was talking about in my last report from the 0,88$ area. The fib retracement level 0.382 from the top was retested and turned 1.30$ price level into resistance. On the way up that is the first line to cross in battle. We're noticing a support in the 0,76$ area. As long as it holds we should see a run up to the 0,92$ area soon, before going to the big 1.30$ battle.
A breakdown from current levels should target no lower than 0,52$. I'm seeing a lot of FUD on twitter about this coin although the fundamentals are getting stronger and the team is making really strong partnerships all around the world (Disney, Coca-Cola).
A lot of price action on the EGLD chart. Most of it pointing down.
We had "a" bottom calculated in the 28-38$ area since last year. We got to 32$, maybe the bear div forming will take it to 28$. Lower than that we will need to reevaluate the charts.
Weekly Trading positions :
Long : 4h close over the 35$ area targets the levels blue moon chart : 38$, 41$, 44$.
Short : 4h close under 32$ targets the 28$ area
Next on our analysis let's try and see if there are some potential "gems" to trade into next year :
6. Before looking at the altcoins let's see what the btc dominance chart tells us.
This one is the chart calculated by trading view:
We're at a crucial point of interest : if we get support we're going to 47-48%, if we lose it, down to 39%. this needs to be correlated with the total market cap in order to be able to calculate a potential price action for altcoins.
Switching to btcdom Binance index :
We're seeing a rejection on the 0.382 Fib level that would suggest a visit to the bottom of the move at 980-1020 area. Should be confirmed once we drop under 1280 levels. In this scenario, if the total crypto market cap stays around 800 B we should get a nice 6 to 8 weeks of altseason. If the total mk is rising, it's a bull market.
Stoch RSI entering overbought area.
NEAR is one of the projects I think can make it to the next bullrun. When that happens I think the first major level we will see a rejection from is at around the 10$ area. It's currently bouncing from the oversold area on daily timeframe with a confirmed bull div. As long as there are no bears to form an invalidation div we're on track.
Considering the 1.236 retracement level of the correction wave A we get this :
Here we have a potential bottom and a RSI bull div on the daily chart that suggest an impulsive breakout soon.
We should at least get a visit to the 0.382 FIB level at around 0,10$. Considering that it currently stands at around 0,016$ I think it represents a good r/r trade for me.
Has one of the prettiest charts around the space. No buying at all in the last few months. I do think it's very close to the bottom, so I'm taking a long position here targeting the 28$ area first.
Stoch is a bit overbought so it first needs a good reset. After that, go time.
Similar price action as ICP. Even better fundamentals in my opinion. Chart looks awesome to me even if it seems "dead". I love it here.
Also taking a long position here, targeting the 20$ area first.
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Go bulls !
Disclaimer : the opinions presented in the following report are my own and DO NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL ADVICE. Cryptocurrency trading is a very risky endeavour. You can and probably will lose your money if you do not do your own research.